How We Measure

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Measurement & Reporting Process

爱博体育分析Over the course of a year, , FP2020 and other partners produce and publish data on the progress of the movement. FP2020's Core Indicator estimates are produced by Track20 and in-country Monitoring & Evaluation (M&E) Officers.

These M&E Officers help organize consensus meetings during which the estimates are agreed upon by in-country stakeholders. Once these data are produced, Track20 and the FP2020 Data & Performance Management Team analyze the data and draft the  of the annual progress report, while the Performance Monitoring & Evidence Working Group爱博体育分析 provides feedback. The report is then launched in the fall.

爱博体育分析 FP2020 ANNUAL MEASUREMENT AND REPORTING PROCESS

JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
DATA COLLECTION & MODELING

Data are collected through different sources across FP2020 countries

In FP2020 commitment countries, Track20 Monitoring & Evaluation (M&E) Officers use all available surveys, service statistics (where of sufficient quality), and the Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) to produce estimates of FP2020 Core Indicators

In non-commitment countries, estimates are either developed by Track20 using FPET or come from the United Nations Population Division's Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators.

MAY
JUN
JUL
CONSENSUS BUILDING

In FP2020 commitment countries, Track20 M&E Officers爱博体育分析 help organize data consensus meetings during which estimates of the FP2020 Core Indicators are agreed upon by the government, its partners, and in-country stakeholders.

These estimates are sent to Track20, which compiles Core Indicator data for all 69 FP2020 countries.

AUG
SEP
OCT
ANALYSIS & DRAFTING

The FP2020 Secretariat Data & Performance Management (DPM) Team works with Track20 to analyze Core Indicator data for all FP2020 countires and draft the measurement section of the progress report.

The FP2020 Performance Monitoring & Evidence Working Group (PME WG) provides feedback and input on the analyses and draft.

NOV
DEC
LAUNCH

The FP2020 Secretariat and its partners launch the print and digital English versions of the progress report and Core Indicator data

The print and digital French versions of the report and Core Indicator data are launched soon afterwards.

Modeled Estimates

Family Planning Estimation Tool

爱博体育分析The  is a statistical model that produces annual estimates of modern contraceptive prevalence rate, MCPR (Core Indicator 2), unmet need (Core Indicator 3), and demand satisfied (Core Indicator 4). Traditionally, countries have relied on estimates for MCPR and unmet need that are taken from population-based surveys, such as the . However, most countries do not conduct such surveys annually. Although routine family planning service statistics and/or data on distribution of contraceptive commodities are available in most countries, they tend to not be used to monitor progress or make decisions at a programmatic level.

FPET incorporates all available historical survey data for a country, as well as service statistics (where determined to be of sufficient quality) to produce estimates of MCPR and unmet need. By using all available data, and regional and global patterns of change, FPET produces better estimates of current levels of MCPR, unmet need, and demand satisfied for each FP2020 country than have been traditionally available for assessing changes in family planning.

fpet

Rolling Baseline

The methodology used to estimate the number of additional users of modern methods of contraception has two important components, both of which confer advantages related to data quality and accuracy. The first is the designation of 2012 as the baseline year or starting point for our calculation—the point at which we set the number of additional users at zero. For each reporting period, we compare the total number of users in the current year to the total number of users in the baseline year (2012). The difference between the two totals is the number of additional users.

Additional Users2019  = Total Users2019  – Total Users2012

爱博体育分析The second component is the use of a “rolling” baseline, meaning we recalculate annual estimates (starting with 2012) on an ongoing basis as new data become available. Continuously incorporating new data improves our ability to monitor progress, so that by 2020 our estimates for all years (2012 to 2020) will represent the most comprehensive and accurate data available. Calculations of the number of additional users depend on MCPR and the population of women of reproductive age (WRA). There is often a lag time of a year, and sometimes longer, before the surveys used to calculate MCPR are released. In addition, updated population estimates (including WRA) often include retrospective modifications of past estimates based on newly released census data and other sources.

Consequently, as new data become available, they affect not only current year estimates but those calculated in previous years as well. The advantage of using rolling estimates is seen by comparing the estimate of the number of users of modern contraception that was calculated for the London Summit on Family Planning in 2012 (258 million) to the updated estimate for 2012 that we use now (261 million). The new baseline calculation incorporates new surveys that give us a better sense of the current MCPR in a country as well as what the MCPR was in 2012.

爱博体育分析As a result we now consider the total number of contraceptive users in 2012 to be 3 million more than originally estimated in 2012. Were we to use the old estimate for 2012, this discrepancy could be misconstrued as 3 million additional users on top of the actual 53 million additional users.

Not only is our 2012 estimate updated, but so are our 2012-2018 estimates. This means that the number of additional users that we previously estimated for these years has changed. Because of these changes, it is important not to compare numbers across different FP2020 Progress Reports. Instead, each report publishes the entire trend since 2012, 爱博体育分析based on the most recent data, enabling comparison of changes over time.

More information on the methodology for the rolling baseline can be found here: . 

More information about the population estimates used to update the rolling baseline can be found here: 2019 Revision of the World Population Prospects compared to the 2017 Revision.

Impact Estimates

Four of FP2020’s Core Indicators measure the impact of modern contraceptive use and the consequences of non-use: unintended pregnancies (Core Indicator 5), unintended pregnancies averted (Core Indicator 6), unsafe abortions averted (Core Indicator 7), and maternal deaths averted (Core Indicator 8).

These indicators measure the impact among all women using modern contraception, not just additional users. They represent an estimate of what might have happened if none of these women were using modern contraception. The estimates are produced using models, not by counting the number of unintended pregnancies, unsafe abortions, and maternal deaths. For more information on how these estimates are produced, visit the Track20 website: .

Survey Estimates

Survey-based Estimates

Estimates for several of FP2020’s Core Indicators come from surveys: modern contraceptive method mix (Core Indicator 9), stockouts (Core Indicator 10), method availability (Core Indicator 11), Method Information Index (Core Indicator 14), counseling (Core Indicator 15), decision making (Core Indicator 16), Adolescent Birth Rate (Core Indicator 17), and discontinuation and switching (Core Indicator 18).

Because these estimates come from surveys, they are not updated every year. FP2020 reports estimates from the most recent survey in its annual progress report.

Disaggregated Estimates

爱博体育分析FP2020 reports estimates for several indicators disaggregated by age, wealth and urban/rural status: MCPR (Core Indicator 2), unmet need (Core Indicator 3), demand satisfied (Core Indicator 4), counseling (Core Indicator 15), and decision making (Core Indicator 16).

爱博体育分析These disaggregated estimates come from the most recent survey. In the case of Core Indicators 2, 3 and 4, these survey-based disaggregated estimates are for married women so they may not match modeled estimates of these indicators from FPET, which are for all women. Disaggregated estimates are available in the .

Adolescents/Youth Estimates

爱博体育分析In addition to disaggregated Core Indicator estimates, FP2020 publishes estimates of key reproductive health indicators for adolescents and youth (aged 10-29). These estimates provide information about the population of adolescents and youth, key life events they experience, and their levels of contraceptive use and need. These estimates are available in the .

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